MyDD :: The Debates now are important for both Obama and Clinton

The Debates now are important for both Obama and Clinton

by Tom Rinaldo, Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 05:03:37 AM EST

For Hillary Clinton, the importance of the two one on one debates she is about to have with Barack Obama is critical and obvious. Hillary Clinton just finished a nightmare two weeks. It was expected to be bad for her going into them but it has been worse than expected. Clinton always knew Obama would keep a real momentum roll going through Hawaii, but she hoped to keep the losses much closer, at least in one or two states. These results leave her campaign seriously wounded, but the schedule for the next two weeks, at least and at last, gives her a chance to "reboot" and realign.

The upcoming debates are a blessing for Hillary because they provide her with two important "contests" that are immune to Obama's momentum; because no one will literally be voting in them. As it currently stands there is a temptation for voters to go with Obama not only for the usual reason of preferring him to an opponent, but also to help "get this thing over with" and fall in behind our likely nominee. That desire is a part of how Obama's momentum from his recent string of victories is helping him; it builds his own "inevitability factor".

But the Obama/Clinton debates provide a literal campaign "cooling off period" from voting, where voters will again simply be comparing the strengths and weaknesses of Obama and Clinton without going into any polling booths while doing so. The debates give Hillary her last best chance to wipe the recent slate clean before the looming big primaries in Ohio and Texas. If Hillary does well enough debating Obama, that can alter perceptions about Obama's increasingly presumed "inevitability, with time enough left for those new perceptions to take root on the ground in Texas and Ohio for Hillary.

But these debates are critical to Barack Obama also, in his case more so in regards to his chances in November than his chances in March. They provide Obama with perhaps his last best opportunity to dramatically enhance his own stature and gravitas prior to taking on McCain as our nominee, assuming Obama wins the nomination. Sharing a stage alone with Hillary Clinton twice, and holding his own unscripted while doing so, can help Obama prepare for some negative heat that unavoidably will be coming his way regarding an "experience gap" with John McCain. Since most voters view Hillary Clinton by far as the more experienced of our Democratic candidates, she becomes the ideal sparring partner for Barack Obama now. If Obama comes across as convincingly competent against Clinton in the coming head to head debates, he will leave them looking much more "Presidential" in the eyes of many Americans.

John McCain will himself debate our Democratic nominee three times, and those debates will be critically important in determining which Party takes the White House in November. We already know how McCain plans to attack Obama in the General Election; he will come after him on experience, he will come after him on his readiness to be Commander in Chief. If Barack Obama does not hold his own against Hillary Clinton on those matters in the upcoming debates, probably he shouldn't be our nominee. If on the other hand Obama does well in that regard, he will cross a critical perceptional threshold, preparing and bolstering him for upcoming conflict with John McCain.

Tags: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, debates, Texas primary, Ohio primary (all tags)

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Re: The Debates (none / 0)

But that's not what happened on Super Tuesday. If you looked at the polls going in, there was a definite swing toward Obama. You think his 56-41 finish in Massachussetts was a crushing blow, compare it to the 59-22 in SUSA's last Massachusetts poll before SC. SUSA was, by the way, dead on with 56-39 result before Super Tuesday.

The fact that Obama (very narrowly) won the delegate count on Super Tuesday shows that the train did not stop in its tracks. It was predicted that he would lose California, New York, and Massachusetts. It was also predicted that he would lose Delaware and Connecticut. The evidence that the Obama train did not stop after February 5 is in the fact that he won 10 straight contests afterward.

Wind at her back, one touch down down? No. She's got a stiff wind blowing against her. Her organization is faltering, her senior staff are spending more time arguing about delegates than focusing on winning states, she'll be relying on 527's, and her opponent just got two big union endorsements. Not to mention that the big poll leads she had in OH and TX have been steadily shrinking.

It's not over but she's got to score a touchdown, get the onside kick and score again if she wants to win this.

by Meng Bomin on Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 02:23:51 PM EST

Re: The Debates (none / 0)

Clinton's previous fire walls all worked, if just barely at times. They kept her in the race after the momentum had shifted strongly to Obama. First it was NH and Nevada, then it was Super Tuesday.

After SC and the media going crazy over Ted Kennedy's endorsement of Obama, there were fears that Clinton would lose States like MA, and NJ, and MA, and TN on Super Tuesday, but she fought back, winning the popular vote and virtually fighting to a virtual tie on delegates. Yes she once was expected to do better on Super Tuesday, she once was expected to win the nomination easily after all. But when you get to the point of talking about "fire walls", by definition we are far past the time when Clinton seemed inevitable. Her fire walls are what kept her in the race this far approaching TX and OH.

Blogging at http://www.aleftturnforclark.com

by Tom Rinaldo on Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 04:32:21 PM EST
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